This talk was given on December 2nd, 2025 for Massachusetts Peace Action (MAPA) The video with discussion is here:

Setting the Stage in Ukraine

Ukrainian independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 hinged on the re-collection and dismantlement of 1,700 Soviet-owned and operated nuclear weapons, under the auspices of the Non Proliferation Treaty in 1994. As a soviet state, Ukraine had been the 3rd largest nuclear power in the world. The relocation and destruction of these Russian nuclear weapons was associated with guarantees to Ukraine, according to Wikipedia, as follows:

In 1994, Ukraine agreed to transfer these weapons to Russia for dismantlement and became a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, in exchange for economic compensation and assurances from Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom to respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its existing borders. Almost twenty years later, Russia, one of the parties to the agreement, invaded Ukraine in 2014.

I want to take a moment to emphasize the assurance that was agreed to by the US, the UK and Russia: "To respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its existing borders."

Like the United States, modern Ukraine faced a civil war, about 60 years after its 1991 independence, reaching a crisis point in 2014, with the Crimea's secession to/annexation by Russia and the larger land war between the urbanized Ukrainian west and the rural, resource rich and ethnically Russian Donbass region. Incidentally, Crimea had been originally transferred to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev in 1953, in a move that ensured his rise to Chairman of the CCCP later that year.

The Minsk Protocol in late 2014, and Minsk Agreements in early 2015 between Russia and Ukraine, put together after Russia annexed Crimea, related to the same parts of Ukraine we are talking about today almost a dozen years later– the culturally and religiously Russian areas in Crimea and the Donbass. The Kiev nationalist leadership, including the recently elevated second most powerful man in Kiev, Rustem Umerov, has long held a vision of the repossession of Crimea, and subjugation of the Donbass region.