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New model guidance suggests readers in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast had better have their firewood stacked, anthracite coal stockpiled, and heating oil and LP tanks filled to the brim, because the first proper intrusion of cold air into both regions could begin as soon as next week, with the possibility of lake-effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes.
"A cold snap is coming for mid-month across the eastern US. The flagship AIFS model has trended colder today, centered on Day 9," meteorologist Ryan Maue wrote on X.
Maue noted, "A strong blocking ridge over Canada remains the dominant pattern ... but plenty of opportunity for Arctic air to go around."
Maue is not alone. Meteorologist Ryan Kane pointed out that the "first legitimate shot of some cold air looks to be gaining traction on model guidance for the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast."
"Cold looks to build in late next week for the following weekend (November 12-15th). Could be cold enough for some lake effect & high elevation upslope snows. Think this is the first punch before we get stronger punches late month into early Dec with the weaker polar vortex," Kane said.
Our first legitimate shot of some cold air looks to be gaining traction on model guidance for the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast. Cold looks to build in late next week for the following weekend (November 12-15th). Could be cold enough for some lake effect & high elevation upslope snows. Think this is the first punch before we get stronger punches late month into early Dec with the weaker polar vortex. #EcWx
— Ryan Kane (@ryankanerWX) November 5, 2026