Keeps going lower.

Three weeks ago we reported that Anthropic IPO investors had marked the valuation from $2 trillion down to $1.5 trillion as the growth slowdown sank in. This morning, Bloomberg reports that the price tag has been cut again: after Thursday's AI bloodbath, some potential backers are now discussing a value as low as $1.2 trillion for the company, a person familiar told the news agency (deliberations are "ongoing," no final decisions have been made, and Anthropic declined to comment).

Put in context: in early October investors were floating a fair value "as high as $2 trillion." The low end of today's range is 40% below that peak, which is a lot of haircut for a company that, according to the WSJ, just pushed its annualized revenue run rate past $80 billion. And for some, even that's not low enough.

"Fair Value," Revised (Again)

The Bloomberg story fills in the timeline. After the company's October briefing on its latest financials, investors told the bankers on the deal that their estimate of a fair valuation had moved to around $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion. Then came Thursday, when the Nasdaq 100 plunged 6.4%, wiping out $2.3 trillion in market value, a record for a single day, and that number "shifted again." Which is why prospective investors are now "facing a weekend of uncertainty ahead of the kickoff of formal marketing."

The buy-siders Bloomberg spoke to are all over the map, though the direction of travel is the same:

BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany's CIO Stephan Kemper expects the valuation to land at the very low end of the rumored $1.5-$2 trillion range, "maybe some 10% to 15% below that," which works out to roughly $1.3 trillion.

Gallo Partners' Michael Alfaro said before Thursday's rout that Anthropic needed to target $1.3 trillion to $1.4 trillion "in order to build a quality book." That was before the Nasdaq's worst day since Covid.

Sycomore's David Rainville: "If they set a valuation toward the bottom of the range, say $1.2 trillion, they shouldn't have a problem finding investors." Translation: at $1.5 trillion, they might.

And HSBC's Max Kettner thinks around $1 trillion "could be a more comfortable level."