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In a chart book published nearly simultaneously with Moody's report, Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok worked to put the enormity of data center spending into perspective.
With total capital expenditure on data centers estimated at roughly $646 billion, or about 2% of U.S. GDP, Slok noted that is roughly equivalent to the GDP for Singapore, Sweden, and Argentina. Defense spending in 2025, meanwhile, was around $917 billion.
However, as Moody's warned this week, the aggressive financing structures supporting this explosive growth are creating significant systemic risks that could ripple across global credit markets and the broader economy.
The most recent example of this buildout - and its coincident debt-funding - is the $36 billion debt financing package currently being shopped by Apollo Global Management and Blackstone to enable Anthropic's large-scale acquisition of Google's custom TPU chips.
As Bloomberg reports, this complex, high-leverage deal - partially backed by Broadcom - underscores how private equity and specialized financiers are channeling enormous capital into AI hardware and data centers through layered debt instruments.
The move would mark one of the largest-ever private credit deals and also the biggest chip-financing debt transaction.
It aims to tap Broadcom's credit quality to provide computing-power access to Anthropic, which just eclipsed rival OpenAI in valuation (and its ecosystem has been dramatically outperforming)...
While such deals accelerate AI capacity, they also concentrate risk.
More concerning is the scale of hidden liabilities across the industry.
According to Moody's Ratings, the five major U.S. hyperscalers (Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Oracle) have accumulated approximately $662 billion in future data center lease commitments that have not yet commenced.
Combined with other commitments, the total undiscounted future lease exposure reaches $969 billion.
To put the scale of this hidden obligation into perspective, Moody's accounting analysts David Gonzales and Alastair Drake calculated that the unrecorded $662 billion is equivalent to 113% of these five hyperscalers' most recent adjusted debt.
These obligations remain entirely off-balance-sheet under current accounting rules, despite representing binding long-term liabilities.
But as Gonzales told Fortune in a statement that it's "not as if [these hyperscalers] have have avoided a liability through structuring," characterizing the $662 billion at issue as "yet to be on the balance sheet," rather than missing.
"More accurately," he added, "they have not yet received the services to trigger this liability as of this time, but they will."
This accounting deferral masks the true leverage in the system.