A week ago, we wrote that South Korea had finally found a home for the first slice of the $350 billion it promised Trump: a $22.3 billion, 6.3GW gas plant in Encinal, Texas, with no customers, no PPA, and turbines that may not show up this decade. That left, as we put it then, "$328 billion to go."

That number is about to get a lot smaller, if only on paper. According to Bloomberg, at 3pm ET, Trump will announce from the Oval Office that Korea is committing $200 billion to US energy projects: eight large nuclear reactors, the Encinal plant, and the long-suffering Alaska LNG export venture, which Bloomberg earlier reported would get $54 billion of Korean backing. A White House official described it as the first tranche of projects to win approval under last year's trade deal.

One small detail: Seoul hasn't publicly confirmed any of it. And according to Korean press, it doesn't entirely agree.

The math adds up... a little too well

Recall how the deal is structured. Of the $350 billion, $200 billion is upfront capital for "strategic industries," capped at $20 billion a year, with a separate $150 billion for shipbuilding. Now add up the three projects that have been floated:

Eight reactors: about $120 billion, per Korea's own government briefing (six Westinghouse AP1000s and two Korean APR1400s, per Kyunghyang Shinmun)

Alaska LNG: $54 billion

Encinal, Texas: $22.3 billion

Total: $196.3 billion. In other words, today's announcement would use up about 98% of Korea's entire strategic-investment tranche in one go, with $3.7 billion left over for bubble tea or whatever. At the $20 billion annual cap, just funding these three would take roughly a decade, which is convenient for a program that runs well past the next two elections.

Here is where it gets awkward. In its National Assembly briefings, the Korean government listed Encinal as the only approved first project. The eight reactors and Alaska LNG were both classified as "items for future negotiation," according to SBS and Seoul Economic Daily. The latter notes that Commerce Secretary Lutnick is leading the announcement, flanked by Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan, while Korea's own trade minister, Kim Jung-kwan, who actually negotiated the thing, is not expected to be there.

Kim was even more explicit on the nuclear piece, telling reporters that the plan "does not mean that the nuclear power projects will immediately proceed" until final arrangements and government reviews are done. So the $200 billion headline is roughly $22 billion that Seoul has signed off on and $174 billion that Seoul is still arguing about.