The normalization phase for tanker traffic through the Hormuz maritime chokepoint is still in its early stages, but the market is already beginning to price in a major wave of physical crude and crude products to hit global markets.

Roughly 60 million barrels of seaborne crude that had been trapped in the Persian Gulf for months are now expected to return to global markets, with much of that supply likely headed toward Asian refiners.

The latest shipping data from Bloomberg shows 21 vessels have transited the critical waterway so far on Friday, the most since the start of the conflict in late February. The data does not account for vessels turning off their transponders.

Shipping data also show that, on a bidirectional basis, the bulk of traffic consisted of 15 tankers and 6 dry cargo ships.

Moments ago, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, or PGSA, Iran's newly created body for regulating transit through the Strait of Hormuz, released a statement: "Following the Islamabad MoU and official directives, vessels that submit compliant transit requests will be permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz during the announced period."

Christian Keller, the Managing Director and Global Head of Economics Research at Barclays, told clients, "With the first half of 2026 ending, the second half looks to be shaped by the US-Iran peace deal's stability to moderate oil prices ..."