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The stock market is telling a different story from the 'Iran is strong, America is overreaching' narrative being spewed by mainstream media.
For weeks, the financial war narrative has been 'Iran, strong; America, reckless', risk's like mercury and the thermometer rising. And yet, the stock market has done the opposite.
As Hugh Hendry remarks in his latest 'Acid Capitalist' report:
"the gap between what you're reading on the front page of the Financial Times or in the Wall Street Journal, and what you're seeing every day in the stock market... has become too wide to ignore."
Hendry goes further:
"...the transatlantic intelligentsia of the coastal elites and the European Sophistocrats, tell you the same goddamn thing:
Iran, Darling, Iran has the upper hand. The strait is their choke point.
Trump, Trump, that clown he's out of his depth. He's a reckless vulgarian, and he's dragging all of us into another disaster.
While the patient, chess-playing Iranians, they hold every card as they sip tea in Tehran.
My brothers and sisters, this is not journalism. It's a fucking echo chamber. "
This is all perfectly engineered to confirm with every lazy prejudice. It is also contemptible because it's wrong.
The market took one cold look at this narrative, and it did what the journalists would say is unforgivable:
"The market the market did not validate.
The market did not hedge. The market it didn't even blink. It just fucking ignored it.
It went the other way. It made fresh all-time highs whilst the entire elitist Tehran-centric fantasy was still being printed as gospel."
Simply put, Hendry goes on, markets reduce the world to one ruthless fucking question:
"it looks at adversaries in conflict, and asks who is constrained and how badly. And the answer once you strip out the BS, it's not complicated..."
And below, Hendry lays out why Iran is cornered...
"Iran's oil system is not built to pause. It's built to flow. It's a flow system.
Oil cannot simply sit in the ground while strategists argue over maps and how much uranium dust to give over. It has to move. Iran and its system has to move continuously from the rock underground to the tanker in the harbor to the Chinese buyer in Asia.