Description
Diesel's at $6.27 nationwide. AAA, September 15. Yesterday $6.23. A week ago $5.90. New nominal record.
California average about $8.21. San Francisco above $8.71. A $10 pump is a station. It is not the state.
Harvest doesn't wait for a cheaper gallon.
This is not just an oil story. Crude is high. It is not at an all-time high. 2008 and 2022 had crude up here. Diesel did not live at $6.27 then.
The squeeze is in making diesel and moving it. October NY Harbor diesel was near $5/gal this morning. That's a wholesale barrel near $210. Against WTI around $102, the diesel-only crack is about $108/barrel — not the broader 3-2-1 spread (~$61).
IEA: global refining still 4.2 million barrels/day below last year. Russia + Persian Gulf net diesel exports 1.6 million bpd lower than February. U.S. distillate stocks ~106 million barrels, 13% under the 5-year average.
Reuters: 3 of Russia's 6 largest diesel plants sharply cut or shut after drone strikes. Kirishi offline. Joliet (IL) lost power Sunday — 11 million gallons/day of gasoline and diesel, ~6% of Midwest capacity. Power back. Units were not.
Houthis hold Perim Island, inside the Bab el-Mandeb. Separately, Saudi Arabia shut the East–West Pipeline after an attack it blamed on Iran-backed fighters operating from Iraq. Different force. Same problem.
USDA (Sept. 3, before this last climb): 2026 farm expenses $492.8 billion. Fuel and oil +28.8%.
Rail: USDA/Reuters — grain fuel surcharges 48¢ per railcar-mile, +153% year over year. About 11% of the corn/soy rail bill. Railroad recovers most of the diesel. Farmer can see a weaker basis.
A lot of this cost sits on the producer first. The grocery aisle has not caught up. That lag is the story.
Not opinions. Documents.