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The federal government's moves to indict former Cuban President Raúl Castro will ramp up pressure for regime change in Cuba and could be a prelude to a U.S. military operation, just as the Trump administration sent troops into Venezuela in January to capture indicted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
But some legal experts say that while an indictment could signal the Trump administration plans to take Castro by force, it would be legally questionable, just as the Venezuela operation was. And by leaking the effort to seek charges against Castro for allegedly ordering humanitarian planes to be shot down in international airspace in 1996, U.S. officials haven't helped ensure a potential military operation is unexpected and covert.
"If I were the Cuban government, I would be very concerned, given everything Trump's been saying, that this was a fig leaf to cover an upcoming invasion," Mitchell Epner, a former federal prosecutor, told USA TODAY.
"I do think that they'll indict Raúl Castro and then snatch him or use that as a way to compel regime change there," Dave Aronberg, a former state attorney for Florida's Palm Beach County, said.
President Donald Trump has been speaking for months about a "takeover" of the longtime communist country. The Trump administration's recent military strikes against Venezuela and Iran have heightened beliefs that the president might actually use force against the Caribbean island nation.
Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Trump ally, said he wants the United States to help bring regime change almost in the same breath as he praised the potential indictment, during public remarks May 15.
"He should be indicted, and he should be held accountable, and the Cuban regime is outdated as well," DeSantis said.
The White House referred USA TODAY to the Department of Justice for questions about a potential indictment and what could come next. The DOJ didn't respond to a request for comment. Cuba's embassy in Washington, D.C. also didn't respond to a request for comment.
What would the charges be?
The sought-after charges reportedly date back to a 1996 incident, in which Castro allegedly ordered Cuban fighter jet pilots to shoot down two civilian planes that were working under a humanitarian group, Brothers to the Rescue. Four members of the group were killed, including three U.S. citizens and one man who was a U.S. resident from Cuba.