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US Economy Expands at 2.0 Percent in 2026 Q1, a Look at the Numbers
GDP, Real Final Sales, and GDI 2026 Advance Estimate
The BEA reports Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March). In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.
Real First-Quarter GDP and GDI
Real GDP: 2.0%
Real Final Sales: 1.6%
Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 2.5%
Real Final Domestic Sales: 2.8%
Real GDI: N/A
Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is not available in the advance (first) release of the quarter.
The difference between real GDP and Real Final Sales is Change In Private Inventories (CIPI) that nets to zero over time.
Thus real final sales are a better measure than the topline widely reported numbers.
The Fed focuses on Real Final Private Domestic Sales which was a solid 2.8 percent.
GDP vs GDI
GDP and GDI are two measures of the same thing. Income from sales should match products produced.
The BEA calls the difference a "Statistical Discrepancy".
Since the fourth quarter of 2022 GDP has been consistently above GDI.
Is income understated or is GDP overstated? It could be a little of each. It could be tax evasion and the underground economy.
Tax evasion creates unreported income (missing from GDI) and under-the-table transactions (missing from GDP).