Iran is blockading the Strait of Hormuz. Urea exports out of the Persian Gulf are non-existent. Sulfur – the unglamorous backbone of phosphate fertilizer production – is just… sitting there. Planting season is closing fast. The global nitrogen supply chain, already under strain since Russia's 2022 export restrictions, is looking at yet another shock. And China halted key fertilizer exports until at least August.

I know, I know. This sounds like the opening of yet another doom piece. But bear with me.

The reason I bring this up isn't to scare you into stockpiling tinned beans in a bunker. Although at this point in time: why not?

It's actually much simpler than that: food prices are going to go up. They're going to go up whether the war stops today or drags on into autumn.

The fertilizer disruption I mentioned in previous articles (most recently here) won't hit your supermarket shelf tomorrow. It's lagged, so somewhere in the next 6 to 18 months, that's when it'll hit. Because THIS season's harvest will THEN come up short. Or the next one. This lag is long enough that most people won't connect the dots. They'll just notice that tomatoes cost twice what they did.

You can either watch that happen, or you can do something about it.

A quick note before we dive in: I live in a temperate climate. The planting calendar, the prices, the climate assumptions – they all reflect that. If you're in the US, the growing principles are identical but your specific frost dates and planting windows will differ. The USDA hardiness zone finder (link) is your friend. Prices are in euros throughout – swap the symbol for dollars and you're close enough.

Let's first talk about the economics, because yep, I'm a numbers guy first. So, what would it actually cost? TL;DR: it's a better RoI than (stock) markets or saving accounts.

You can buy a packet of tomato seeds for €2-3, which contains 20-30 seeds. Six to eight of those will become plants. Each plant, in a reasonable season, produces around 2-4kg of fruit (yes yes, tomatoes are fruit!) – potentially 20-25kg of tomatoes from a single €3 packet, against supermarket prices currently climbing past €3-4 per kilo for anything decent. Courgettes are almost embarrassingly productive. One plant gives you 20-30 fruits over the season, more than most people know what to do with (we'll get to that). Beans, peas, salad leaves: the same story across the board.

The startup cost for a basic garden? A few seed packets, a bag of compost, some pots if you need them, which nets to around €30-50.