Trump has threatened armed intervention if the deaths continue. There is every reason to oppose this. But before getting into what might happen in Iran, there is another issue that we need to address, and this issue is basic.

Why are we trying to figure out what will happen in Iran at all? The purpose of American foreign policy is to defend America from attack. Iran poses no direct threat to America. We might prefer some outcomes of the situation there to others, but that does not justify a departure from our traditional foreign policy of non-intervention.

The great Murray Rothbard explained the reasons for non-intervention with unsurpassed clarity: "Well, the basic element of any libertarian foreign policy is to pressure the government to do nothing abroad, just to pack up shop and go home. General Smedley Butler, one of my great heroes, formerly of the Marine Corps, in the late 1930s proposed a constitutional amendment in the Woman's Home Companion. His article was a sensation for a while but of course the amendment never was adopted and has now been forgotten. But it was kind of a charming constitutional amendment—I recommend that everybody read it. In essence it says something like this: no American soldier, plane, or ship shall be sent any place outside America. In other words, complete abstinence from any kind of American military intervention and political and economic intervention."

Further, Rothbard, points out, intervention leads to the killing of innocent civilians: "In other words, since all governments aggress against their citizens through taxes, through conscription, through mass murder called war, the more governments that enter into the picture—the more the United states, Britain, or whatever rushes in to defend Waldavia—the more innocent civilians get killed, the more innocent people are forced to pay taxes, the more innocent people are conscripted. So the way to minimize aggression when you are dealing with states is to agitate and press for nobody to enter into any conflict at all—hopefully for no government to go to war with any other government—and if any government does go to war, for the third, fourth, and fifth party to stay the blazes out."

Having looked at this basic principle, as Rothbard has explained it, we are now in position to assess American policy toward Iran. One key fact needs to be kept in mind in understanding what is going on in the Middle East. Iran and Israel are bitter enemies, and the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu would like nothing better than an American attack on Iran that would overthrow its rival for power in the region and remove what he deems an existential threat to his country. Netanyahu has again and again urged America to attack Iran. Whether such an attack would best serve Israel's interests is a good question; but regardless of how you answer it, it does not justify American intervention, as I've already explained. Unfortunately, Trump is often under Netanyahu's sway, and this does not bode well for those of us who favor non-intervention. For example, in a speech to Israel's Knesset (parliament) last October, Trump said: "I want to express my gratitude to a man of exceptional courage and patriotism whose partnership did so much to make this momentous day possible. You know, who I'm talking about there's only one: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu." He then asked Netanyahu to stand up as the members of Knesset cheered for him. Trump said, "And he is not easy. I want to tell you, he's not the easiest guy to deal with. But that's what makes him great."