This shift is backed by SONAR data, confirming a market turnaround.

Tender rejections rising: The increase in tender rejections to over 6% signals that the market is tightening. After seeing rejections dip to 3.4% post-Labor Day last year, this change indicates that carriers now have more control in choosing which loads they accept, thus shifting market dynamics in their favor.

Spot rates increasing: Spot rates are also climbing, surpassing those of 2022 and 2023, which tells me there's either a surge in demand or a decrease in available capacity, possibly both. This could catch many expecting the low rates to persist off guard. Truckload rates are up to $1.78 from $1.54 a year ago.  

Carrier revenge could be coming next year: "Carrier revenge" implies that carriers, after a period of low rates and high competition, might leverage their position to negotiate better rates or reject tenders more selectively in the coming months, affecting shippers' logistics strategies, especially routing guides.

Decreasing capacity: Speaking of capacity, the upcoming implementation of the FMCSA's Clearinghouse-II regulations on Nov. 18, 2024, will have a significant impact. Trucking expert Adam Wingfield stated that 177,000 truck drivers could potentially lose their CDLs, further tightening the market as state agencies need to query the Clearinghouse for any licensing actions. 

This regulation requires:

State Driver Licensing Agencies (SDLAs) to remove the commercial driving privileges of drivers in a "prohibited" status in the Clearinghouse. This action will result in a downgrade of the Commercial Driver's License (CDL) until the driver completes the return-to-duty (RTD) process.

SDLAs must query the Clearinghouse before issuing, renewing, upgrading, or transferring CDLs and Commercial Learner's Permits (CLPs). This step ensures that drivers with unresolved drug or alcohol violations are not allowed to operate commercial motor vehicles.

Political influence: Trump's election could accelerate freight demand as policy changes could stimulate economic activity, increasing the need for freight services. This includes income and corporate tax cuts, bonus depreciation, pre-stocking for tariffs, investment in domestic manufacturing and the change in freight dynamics from containers to surface (trucking, rail and domestic warehousing).