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But very few anticipated that it would be this bad. We are facing the worst oil disruption in history, the worst natural gas disruption in history, the worst helium disruption in history and the worst fertilizer disruption in history simultaneously. The Iranians have control over which ships are allowed through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are determined to keep it that way for as long as possible. But even if the war ended and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was fully restored tomorrow, it would take years for the global economy to return to normal because of all the energy infrastructure that has been destroyed on both sides.
With no end in sight for the war, oil prices in the western world just continue to move higher.
But if you want to see where oil prices are eventually headed if this crisis persists, just check out what has been happening in Dubai.
At one point on Thursday, the price of oil in Dubai briefly hit an all-time record of $166 a barrel…
The extreme spike in oil prices seen in local markets in the Middle East could give investors a glimpse into to where U.S. and Europe prices are headed if the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened soon.
Dubai crude oil prices surpassed $166 a barrel to a new record high on Thursday, according to market data provider Platts. Dated Brent and West Texas intermediate Cushing's are trading around the $100 mark after historic runs higher.
Normally, the price of oil in Dubai falls somewhere between West Texas oil and Brent oil.
But once the war began, it started selling at an unprecedented premium.
In Saudi Arabia, officials are projecting that the price of oil could eventually surpass $180 a barrel if this war persists until the end of next month…
Saudi Arabia's oil officials are working frantically to project how high oil prices might go if the Iran war and its disruption of energy supplies doesn't end soon-and they don't like what they are seeing.
The base case, several oil officials in the Gulf's biggest producer said, is that prices could soar past $180 a barrel if the disruptions persist until late April.
While that would sound like a bonanza for a kingdom still heavily leveraged to oil revenue, it is deeply concerning. Prices that high could push consumers into habits that slash their oil use-potentially for the long term-or trigger a recession that also hurts demand. They also would risk casting Saudi Arabia in the role of profiteer in a war it didn't start.
If the price of oil reaches that level and stays there for an extended period of time, it will crash everything.
Our system is simply not designed to be able to handle a shock like that.
Of course we are also facing a historic natural gas crisis as well.
Normally, approximately one-fifth of the world's supply of liquified natural gas is produced by Qatar's Ras Laffan complex.
That complex is nearly three times the size of Paris, and it cost hundreds of billions of dollars to build.
So it was a really, really big deal when Iranian missiles started raining down.
The CEO of QatarEnergy is telling us that output at the complex has been reduced by 17 percent, and it will take three to five years to rebuild the capacity that has been lost…